Fusco, F. and Ringwood, J.
A Study on Short-Term Sea Profile Prediction for Wave Energy
In: 8th European Wave and Tidal Energy Conference, EWTEC, September 7-10 2009, Uppsala, Sweden.
Control of wave energy converters requires knowledge
of some seconds of the future behavior of certain
physical quantities, in order to approach optimality. That
is why short time prediction of the oncoming waves is a
crucial problem in the field of wave energy, whose solution
could bring great benefits to the effectiveness of the
devices and to their economical viability.
This study is proposed as a preliminary approach to
cope with this necessity, where wave forecasts are computed
on the basis of past observations collected at the
prediction site itself. Working on single point measurements
allows the treatment of the wave elevation as a
pure time series, so that a wide range of well established
techniques from the stochastic time series modelling and
forecasting field may be exploited. Among the proposed
solutions there are some cyclical models, based on an explicit
representation of the a priori knowledge about the
real process. It is then shown how a lot simpler and more
effective solution can be obtained through classical AR
models, which are shown to be able to implicitly represent
the cyclical behavior of real waves. As a comparison
with AR models some results obtained with neural
networks are also provided.
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