A 305-year continuous monthly rainfall series for the island of Ireland (1711–2016)


Murphy, Conor and Broderick, Ciaran and Burt, Timothy P. and Curley, Mary and Duffy, Catriona and Hall, Julia and Harrigan, Shaun and Matthews, Tom K.R. and Mcdonald, Neil and McCarthy, Gerard and McCarthy, Mark P. and Mullan, Donal and Noone, Simon and Osborn, Timothy J. and Ryan, Ciara and Sweeney, John and Thorne, Peter and Walsh, Seamus and Wilby, Robert L. (2018) A 305-year continuous monthly rainfall series for the island of Ireland (1711–2016). Climate of the Past, 14. pp. 413-440. ISSN 1814-9332

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Abstract

A continuous 305-year (1711–2016) monthly rainfall series (IoI_1711) is created for the Island of Ireland. The post 1850 series draws on an existing quality assured rainfall network for Ireland, while pre-1850 values come from instrumental and documentary series compiled, but not published by the UK Met Office. The series is evaluated by comparison with independent long-term observations and reconstructions of precipitation, temperature and circulation indices from across the British–Irish Isles. Strong decadal consistency of IoI_1711 with other long-term observations is evident throughout the annual, boreal spring and autumn series. Annually, the most recent decade (2006–2015) is found to be the wettest in over 300 years. The winter series is probably too dry between the 1740s and 1780s, but strong consistency with other long-term observations strengthens confidence from 1790 onwards. The IoI_1711 series has remarkably wet winters during the 1730s, concurrent with a period of strong westerly airflow, glacial advance throughout Scandinavia and near unprecedented warmth in the Central England Temperature record – all consistent with a strongly positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Unusually wet summers occurred in the 1750s, consistent with proxy (treering) reconstructions of summer precipitation in the region. Our analysis shows that inter-decadal variability of precipitation is much larger than previously thought, while relationships with key modes of climate variability are time-variant. The IoI_1711 series reveals statistically significant multicentennial trends in winter (increasing) and summer (decreasing) seasonal precipitation. However, given uncertainties in the early winter record, the former finding should be regarded as tentative. The derived record, one of the longest continuous series in Europe, offers valuable insights for understanding multi-decadal and centennial rainfall variability in Ireland, and provides a firm basis for benchmarking other long-term records and reconstructions of past climate. Correlation of Irish rainfall with other parts of Europe increases the utility of the series for understanding historical climate in further regions.

Item Type: Article
Keywords: 305-year; continuous monthly rainfall series; Ireland; 1711–2016;
Academic Unit: Faculty of Social Sciences > Geography
Item ID: 9352
Identification Number: 10.5194/cp-14-413-2018
Depositing User: Conor Murphy
Date Deposited: 11 Apr 2018 13:35
Journal or Publication Title: Climate of the Past
Publisher: European Geosciences Union (EGU)
Refereed: Yes
URI:

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