Sweeney, John and Fealy, Rowan (2002) Future climate scenarios for Ireland using high resolution statistical downscaling techniques. In: Achievement and Challenge: Rio+10 and Ireland. The Environmental Institute, UCD, pp. 172-179. ISBN 1-902277-589

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Abstract

Polynomial regression techniques were used to derive a baseline climatology for Ireland at a scale of l km2 for the p eriod 1961-90. Monthly climate variables were related to position and elevation on a digital elevation model and these were found to provide good predictors for precipitation and m aximum/minimum temperature. Baseline maps for mean monthly radiation receipt and potential evapotranspiration were a lso derived at 1 km2 scales. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) Reanalysis D ata were then related to this b aseline climatology and relationships be n veen upper air variables and surface climate established as a basis for statistical downscaling of global climate models. Monthly output for the spatial domain over Ireland were extrac ted from th e latest Hadley Centre Clobal Climate Model (HadCM3). Using the upper air/surface relationships the climate differences be t\'Veen a modelled run for the 1961-90 period and the period 204 1-70 was establish ed. These differences were th en applied to the baseline climate d ata to provide future climatic scenarios for Ireland for these period s. Mean temperature increases of 2-3°C we re projected for mid century for both summer and winter. Precipitation changes showed w inter increases of the order of 10% in western Ireland and similar summer decreases especially in eastern Ireland. Observation al data trends appear to match these projections.

Item Type:	Book Section
Keywords:	climate; ireland; future; high resolution; statistical downscaling techniques;
Academic Unit:	Faculty of Social Sciences > Geography Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units, ICARUS
Item ID:	9977
Depositing User:	Prof. John Sweeney
Date Deposited:	20 Sep 2018 09:12
Publisher:	The Environmental Institute
Refereed:	Yes
URI:
Use Licence:	This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here

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